When voters delivered a second term to Donald Trump, it’s unlikely the counterculture industry was at the top of their minds.
Let’s hope it wasn’t, anyway.
While Trump carried all seven swing states and the popular vote, the red wave that swept him into office also delivered a stinging rebuke to drug reform advocates. Legalization efforts in both Dakotas as well as Florida failed, and Massachusetts rejected a measure to make psychedelics great again.
On election night, it was hard for many to see a positive outlook for smoke shops.
Others, however, had a different take. Trump supporters within the industry were quick to point out that the President-elect ran on a pro-cannabis, pro-vape platform. He championed the Florida ballot initiative in brazen defiance of the state’s popular Republican governor and tweeted out support for moving cannabis down to Schedule 3.
In a Truth Social post in September, Trump’s account noted: “I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations while providing access for adults to safe, tested product.”
Still, it’s hard to believe that cannabis reform is high on his agenda.
Reasons for Pessimism
The famously mercurial President is an avid poll watcher. He understands, like few others, what words and actions get responses from the public.
And while he’s publicly supported much-needed reforms, he was also glued to the TV as news of cannabis’s failure at the ballot box rolled in. For a president who loves being on the winning side of every issue, the defeat of initiatives he promoted might sting.
There’s also the specter of his first administration. Before the 2016 election, Trump promised to leave cannabis matters to the state, but he didn’t stick to it. His administration proudly reversed the Obama-era policy that prevented federal prosecutors from going after cannabis dispensaries in legalized states and later proposed cutting off all federal protections of state medical marijuana laws.
It’s hard to erase the memory of that bait and switch.
And sure, he crowed support on Truth Social. But it’s clear Trump didn’t write that. He may have OK’d the messaging, but the post lacks the President’s singular voice and energy, signaling that a pro-cannabis stance might not be that important to him.
Even Vice President J.D. Vance, despite penning an autobiography cataloging his intimate experience with opioid addiction, is an opponent of cannabis. When nearly 60 percent of voters in his state voted to legalize recreational usage in 2023, Vance stood firm in his disagreement.
There’s also the matter of Congress. The incoming Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, has long voiced criticism of the cannabis industry. He also hails from South Dakota, where voters are fresh from shooting down a legalization initiative.
Even if Trump wants to implement a forward-thinking cannabis agenda, it feels unlikely he’ll choose to spend his political capital in that arena when he has so many other causes that ignite his passion.
Reasons for Optimism
On the other hand, Trump has vowed that his second term will look and feel different from his first. And, if the people he surrounds himself with are any indication, that certainly seems true.
Trump changed up his inner circle to include a cadre of pro-cannabis advisors. On the campaign trail, he’s gotten closer to Rep. Matt Gaetz2, Elon Musk, Dr. Oz, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., all of whom have expressed hearty support for cannabis or psychedelics.
With key administration figures openly embracing alternative therapies, the atmosphere within the Oval Office could feel more amenable to forward-thinking policies around cannabis.
Trump has also shown a fondness for accomplishing things his opponents couldn’t. That could bode well for federal legality. The Biden administration proposed rescheduling cannabis to a Schedule 3 drug in 2022, but the effort stalled out before it reached final approval, with bureaucrats ultimately deciding to put the issue on hold until the new administration arrives. Perhaps Trump II will see this as a chance to demonstrate he’s more effective than his predecessor.
What the Counterculture Should Expect?
If there’s a through line when it comes to President Trump’s cabinet picks and policy proposals, it’s a mistrust for the status quo. Sometimes, the ideas espoused by those close to the President tend to the conspiratorial, more often they’re simply mistrustful of what they see as government overreach and interference.
Several figures in Trump’s cabinet have expressed feelings that federal agencies have become captured by corporate interests like Big Pharma or that administrative bloat hampers efficiency and effectiveness.
Those are ideas the counterculture industry can get behind. But, like all complex matters, the trouble isn’t with the diagnosis. It’s the prescription. And on that front, the news is . . . complicated.
While it’s tempting to take a stab at parsing Trump’s words, it doesn’t seem likely that he has a regimented “cannabis plan” that he’s trying to articulate. The issue just doesn’t seem that important to the man. A better way to predict the future is to scrutinize his actions.
Trump has signaled a willingness to blow up the whole operation and start again. It sounds far out, but we’ve seen it before. Jimmy Carter turned the federal budget on its ear with his zero-base budgeting framework. Ronald Reagan rode in on a promise to shrink the government and eliminate the Departments of Energy and Education but ended up creating a new department and increasing the number of non-military federal workers.
While ideas like the Department of Government Efficiency and the outside-the-beltway perspectives Trump came in with might feel different at first, it’s possible that his radical plans will ultimately feel … a bit ordinary, especially when it comes to cannabis reform.
The biggest changes to come may come from aspects of the industry that aren’t related to cannabis: tariffs on foreign-made goods and whatnot. With the President focused on effecting a MAGA-style government reformation, it’s likely that low-priority concerns like cannabis banking bills will have difficulty getting any oxygen.
Maybe the more things change, the more they’ll stay the same.
