The Hemp Market’s Reckoning: Uncertainty is Baked in; So is Opportunity

Another year came and went with both profound changes—and little clarity—in the U.S. hemp market.

The good news coming out of 2024 was that consumers continued to value hemp products and wanted more of them. Fresh offerings, such as THC-infused seltzers and disposable cannabinoid vapes, kept smoke shops’ product lines fresh for long-time customers and held enough appeal to draw in a new and varied base of curious consumers.

However, the headwinds were strong. The tenuous state of legality continued to drag down research and investment funding, hemp sales slumped in areas that legalized recreational marijuana, and a flurry of new smoke shops increased competition and further denigrated the industry’s image in the minds of non-users.

All this led to an up-and-down year for the hemp industry, which saw the alt-cannabinoid market narrowly avoid legislation that would kill it while simultaneously enjoying its highest sales and growth rate of the decade.

Reports estimating the size of total U.S. hemp market in 2024 varied wildly—from less than $1 billion to more than $10 billion in value, with the cannabinoids (including CBD, THC-A, and Delta 8) making up a substantial part of that value. ZBrand.psd

The lack of consensus is telling. While some data analysts believe the market will continue its growth trajectory throughout the next few years, a few point out political realities could trigger a collapse.

Beau Whitney, Chief Economist at the hemp industry-focused firm Whitney Economics, points out that the number of hemp farms in America has fallen fast, thanks in large part to the plant’s uncertain legality.

“The lack of federal clarity is driving this downward trend to such an extent that the number of acres licensed nationally is below where it was before the 2018 Farm Bill,” he said. “The state interventions are creating so much uncertainty in all aspects of hemp (grain, fiber, and cannabinoids)that investors are pulling back, banks are de-banking hemp operators, and farmers do not want to plant the crop. As a result, I have had to reduce my forecasted acreage projections twice in the past six months.”

Even for an industry accustomed to shockwaves, 2024 provided a jolt. Here’s a brief overview of the trends that shaped last year.

The lack of federal clarity is driving this downward trend to such an extent that the number of acres licensed nationally is below where it was before the 2018 Farm Bill

Renewed Legal Fights

As federal promises to pass an updated version of the Farm Bill evaporated for a second straight year, the industry was left to follow the path it began in 2018, when alt-cannabinoids were legislated into existence.

Smoke shops may have notched a win when Congress failed to implement House Republicans’ proposed Farm Bill, which would have all but ended American hemp farming. But the lack of guidance from Washington has encouraged state legislatures to step up their efforts.

“This last year really saw a coordinated war on hemp,” said Jonathan Miller, lead counsel for the U.S. Hemp Council. “There were efforts in Congress and many at the state level to ban all hemp products. The laws proposed that hemp products with any level of THC would either be federally illegal or would be sold only in state dispensary systems.”

And indeed, nine states enacted laws that clamped down on the freedoms hemp previously enjoyed. Red states(Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia, and South Dakota) passed laws that either banned or severely restricted alt-cannabinoids, while blue states moved sales within state-approved networks(New Jersey and Connecticut) or created new regulatory structures (Minnesota).

As always, California and Florida provided surprising twists. Florida smoke shops were granted a reprieve when Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a bill that would have enacted harsh restrictions. He said the law overly burdened small businesses but encouraged lawmakers to revisit the topic this year. And California instituted a temporary “emergency” ban on all hemp products so legislators could study the health consequences.

The trend is clear: the biggest challenges to hemp products will play out on a state-by-state basis this year.

“I’m optimistic that we’ll get some stability at the federal level. We’re trying to push federal legislation to robustly regulate products, not ban them, ”Miller said, adding that the U.S. Hemp Roundtable has held several productive conversations with federal lawmakers from both parties. “At the state level, it’s Whac-a-Mole. We were successful inbeating back efforts in Illinois and Ohio, but they’re popping back up. We’ve got real battles this year in Illinois, Ohio, and Texas.”

Candy Everybody Wants

To make matters more complicated, just as politicians are trying to crack down on the industry, big business is embracing it.

Alcohol companies like Pabst Blue Ribbon, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and Molson Coors have all brought cannabis infused drinks to market.

Similarly, marijuana multi-state operators (MSOs) heard the siren song of alt-cannabinoids and began to stock their dispensaries with home-grown product lines.

And who can overlook the physical boom of smoke shops? According to one estimate, the number of new shops has increased by 20 percent per year since2018.

That’s a lot of money coming into the industry—and money always brings attention, both good and bad.

This last year really saw a coordinated war on hemp. There were efforts in Congress and many at the state level to ban all hemp products. The laws proposed that hemp products with any level of THC would either be federally illegal or would be sold only in state dispensary systems.

New Products with Short Shelf Lives

2024 was also the year of the THC infused seltzer. Brands like Cycling Frog, Slightly Elevated, and Seth Rogen’s Houseplant burst onto the scene this year, offering hemp- and cannabis based alternatives to alcohol.

Moving beyond smoke shops into bars and hipster restaurants, the trend seemed to capture the essence of the Next Big Thing. Investors poured money into seltzer startups, which helps explain why one legislative proposal in Iowa wanted to ban all hemp products in the state—except THC-infused beverages.

But while the big money went to beverages, the year saw many products with less long-term potential beginning to dominate smoke shops and cut into the hemp sector’s dominance.

When smoke shop loyalists weren’t sipping on carbonated cannabis, they were experimenting with mind-expanding snacks. Psychedelic products, mostly edibles made with the not quite-psilocybin compound muscimol, found wider acceptance in 2024.

However, the biggest entrants to the game were products like Galaxy Gas, nitrous oxide cartridges that come in a range of fruit flavors. The whippet trend swept across TikTok in typical fashion. The trend came and went like a meme, offering pure delight for its 15 minutes of Short Attention Span Theatre. First, it was nowhere, then everywhere, then just a silly memory. But damn, those cartridges make for some delicious recipes.

The hemp industry in 2024 was anything but boring. It rode out political storms, saw a surge in trendy products, and attracted the kind of corporate attention that signals a bigger fight ahead.

The hemp industry in 2024 was anything but boring. It rode out political storms, saw a surge in trendy products, and attracted the kind of corporate attention that signals a bigger fight ahead. Despite regulatory headaches and fleeting fads, the market found ways to innovate as it expanded.

Clearly, hemp is no longer on the fringe of the cannabis sector. It’s got staying power—even if the rules keep changing. The question is whether it’s truly become “too big to ban” or if we’ve already seen Peak Cannabinoid.

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